Your first instinct is most likely correct.
I firmly believe that each of us accumulates life experience knowledge , and that when we are confronted with a situation or decision, our first instinct (to react) is very likely correct.
There are situations in which you have to reason out the facts (like in a business situation), but once you start reasoning with yourself (on a complex matter) your chance of being right may only be 50% (yes or no).
When I think back on some of the critical decisions that I had to make, my fist instincts were mostly correct.

